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Coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems affected by ocean warming and acidification, and are predicted to collapse over the next few decades. Reefs are predicted to shift from net accreting calcifier-dominated systems with exceptionally high biodiversity to net eroding algal-dominated systems with dramatically reduced biodiversity. Here, we present a two-year experimental study examining the responses of entire mesocosm coral reef communities to warming (+2 °C), acidification (−0.2 pH units), and combined future ocean (+2 °C, −0.2 pH) treatments. Contrary to modeled projections, we show that under future ocean conditions, these communities shift structure and composition yet persist as novel calcifying ecosystems with high biodiversity. Our results suggest that if climate change is limited to Paris Climate Agreement targets, coral reefs could persist in an altered state rather than collapse. 

Abstract Successional theory proposes that fast growing and well dispersed opportunistic species are the first to occupy available space. However, these pioneering species have relatively short life cycles and are eventually outcompeted by species that tend to be longer-lived and have lower dispersal capabilities. Using Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) as standardized habitats, we examine the assembly and stages of ecological succession among sponge species with distinctive life history traits and physiologies found on cryptic coral reef habitats of Kāneʻohe Bay, Hawaiʻi. Sponge recruitment was monitored bimonthly over 2 years on ARMS deployed within a natural coral reef habitat resembling the surrounding climax community and on ARMS placed in unestablished mesocosms receiving unfiltered seawater directly from the natural reef deployment site. Fast growing haplosclerid and calcareous sponges initially recruited to and dominated the mesocosm ARMS. In contrast, only slow growing long-lived species initially recruited to the reef ARMS, suggesting that despite available space, the stage of ecological succession in the surrounding habitat influences sponge community development in uninhabited space. Sponge composition and diversity between early summer and winter months within mesocosm ARMS shifted significantly as the initially recruited short-lived calcareous and haplosclerid species initially recruit and then died off. The particulate organic carbon contribution of dead sponge tissue from this high degree of competition-free community turnover suggests a possible new component to the sponge loop hypothesis which remains to be tested among these pioneering species. This source of detritus could be significant in early community development of young coastal habitats but less so on established coral reefs where the community is dominated by long-lived colonial sponges.